Ti Insight’s latest research into the global parcels market reveals a landscape of dynamic growth and regional disparities. The comprehensive analysis, part of TI’s Express Market Sizing Analysis, offers a detailed look at the industry’s performance over the past five years and projects future trends through 2028. This in-depth study examines key factors driving market expansion, including the surge in e-commerce, evolving consumer behaviors, and the impact of global economic conditions. By dissecting the market into segments such as domestic versus international shipments and B2B versus B2C deliveries, TI Insight provides a nuanced understanding of the forces shaping this rapidly evolving sector.
The global express parcels market has demonstrated substantial growth over the past five years, expanding from €396.4 billion in 2019 to €518.5 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9%. This growth trajectory, however, has not been without fluctuations. The market experienced a decline in 2022 but rebounded with a 3.8% growth in 2023. This performance reflects the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which initially accelerated e-commerce adoption and increased demand for parcel delivery services from 2020 to 2021. The global parcels market is significantly influenced by regional performances, with Asia Pacific and North America leading the charge. Asia Pacific, valued at €199.9 billion in 2023, shows the most robust growth with a CAGR of 9.4% from 2019 to 2023. North America follows closely at €192.2 billion, with a strong CAGR of 7.3%. Europe, ranking third at €102.4 billion, displays a more modest growth rate of 2.9% CAGR, suggesting a more mature market. Collectively, Asia Pacific and North America account for over 75% of the global market value, underscoring their dominance in the industry.
The competitive landscape of the global express parcels market is dominated by major players such as UPS, FedEx, and DHL, who hold a significant share of the market. Other key companies include SF Express, La Poste, USPS, Royal Mail, Sagawa Express, Yamato, and Yunda Express. These carriers represent major global economies including the US, China, UK, Germany, France, and Japan, with most having extensive international operations. The market is segmented into domestic and international sectors, as well as B2B and B2C categories. The domestic segment remains dominant, accounting for 80% of the market value in 2023. However, the international segment is growing at a faster rate, reflecting wider cross-border trade and increased consumer appetite for overseas e-commerce purchases. In terms of business models, the B2C segment has been the growth driver, accounting for 59.4% of the global market in 2023 compared to 47.6% in 2018. This shift is primarily due to the rapid increase in e-commerce retail sales worldwide.
Recent market trends reveal some unusual dynamics, particularly in developed economies. Despite declining parcel volumes in some regions, operators have managed to maintain revenue growth through strategic price management. This has led to a situation where some carriers are experiencing a decline in both volume and revenue for certain service lines, resulting in a shift from premium to standard services. These trends reflect broader economic challenges, including high inflation and increasing cost pressures in major economies. The global economy is projected to maintain a steady growth rate of 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, mirroring the pace set in 2023. However, the five-year global growth forecast of 3.1% is notably low by historical standards, raising concerns about long-term economic prospects. Alongside these growth projections, global inflation is anticipated to decline steadily, from 6.8% in 2023 to 4.5% by 2025, with advanced economies expected to return to their inflation targets more quickly than their emerging and developing counterparts.
Looking ahead, TI Insight forecasts continued growth for the global express parcels market. The market is expected to see 9.2% year-over-year growth. By 2028, the market is projected to expand quite significantly, growing at a 5-year CAGR of 7.3% between 2023 and 2028. This growth will be driven by several factors, including continued GDP growth and the expansion of e-commerce. In major economies, e-commerce sales are expected to maintain their growth trajectory, with the UK, US, and China’s e-commerce sales forecast to grow at 9.7%, 14.8%, and 9.2% respectively.
The global express parcels market is at a critical juncture, balancing between mature markets showing signs of saturation and emerging markets with high growth potential. The industry faces challenges such as economic uncertainties, inflationary pressures, and shifting consumer behaviours. However, it also presents opportunities in the form of technological advancements, cross-border e-commerce expansion, and the potential for market consolidation. As the market continues to evolve, carriers will need to adapt their strategies to navigate these complex dynamics, focusing on price optimization, service diversification, and operational efficiency to maintain growth and profitability. The coming years will likely see increased competition, particularly in high-growth regions like Asia Pacific, as well as a greater emphasis on sustainable and innovative delivery solutions to meet changing consumer expectations and regulatory requirements.
Read the latest Whitepaper on Global Express Parcels Market Insight from Ti Insight
Author: Paul Chapman
Source: Ti Insights
